2012: Premature Predictions

So now is about the last possible minute I can sit back and proclaim Obama the next President of the United States. Soon the polls will tighten and it will make me and so many other commentators worried about what they've written in the last week or so.

I remember in late 2007 political pundit Charlie Cook was probably looking at the polls after Thanksgiving that put Senator Clinton around 9-16 points above Obama in the Democratic primaries.

Cook wrote an extremely good article about who Clinton might end up picking to be her Vice President. He weighed up all the potential candidates pros and cons well and started to build up a picture of a Clinton administration. He didn't include Barack Obama, instead leaving him till last and only wrote one sentence admitting that this could be the man to make him regret ever submitting the article.

It was George Santayana who first said, "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it." So in that spirit lets take a look at which Republicans might run in 2012 against Obama.

First of all is Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Many in the conservative movement have pointed to Sarah Palin as being the best thing on the ticket. That was why she was picked after all; to motivate Republicans. So when it comes down to Republican primaries, where the primary goal is to motivate Republicans, she should fare quite well.

However primaries have a lot of debates in them and she'd be pretty well scrutinized by other members of her party gunning for the top job themselves. She could only get the nomination if it was much more of a coronation much like George Bush's was meant to be in 2000 (before a certain pesky Senator from Arizona won the New Hampshire Primary). Palin would have have fared pretty poorly if she was included in the 21 debates the Republicans held this cycle.

She would also find it hard building initial support in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. When Mitt Romney was planning his run for the Presidency he would very easily pop over to New Hampshire and meet with party members without it being too much of a coup (in fact due to shared media markets much Massachusetts TV covering Governor Romney was shown in New Hampshire). If Palin got in a plane and travelled over 3,000 miles to New Hampshire then people would know she was only there to fish for votes. She would need the party establishment to get behind her and get behind her early and make the early contests a forgone conclusion.

It also all depends on how well inevitable-going-to-be-elected-President Obama is handling his job. If he's riding high in the polls I think Palin would be wise to sit it out and let someone else fail (after another election which is of course another forgone conclusion).

If she waited and let a movement build up behind her, anxious for her to throw her name into the ring the road to the nomination would be a lot easier as Republicans like to pick a candidate they like early and stick with them. The extra time would also allow Palin to build a more impressive CV.

Other names include Mitt Romney. Now I believe (hope) the economy will getting back on its feet by 2012 and that would rob Romney of an issue he is strong on. However parties are often criticized for fighting the previous election so perhaps this will help Romney.

He certainly wanted to be McCain's Vice Presidential choice but after spending so much of his own money on his campaign and seeing zero returns will his business acumen prevent him from making another risky investment.

Mike Huckabee could also do well if the Christian Right in the party conclude the absence of a fundamentalist christian at the top of cost Republicans the Presidency (though this argument will also help Palin and other evangelicals).

The rise of Sarah Palin hurts Huckabee more than anyone else. His evangelical bona fides mixed with his folksy charm are traits that helped him win states however Palin does the job better and does little else. Huckabee would have to find another angle of attack is Palin is running too.

Perhaps a little perversely I would also consider Jeb Bush a potential candidate. He was the smarter of the two brothers and would have probably ran for President himself had he not lost his bid to become Governor of Florida in 1994. He's popular with the christian right, he's from the largest swing state that he governed well, fluent in Spanish and has connections that could list for miles. His surname is Bush however and so he will be tied to the fortunes of his brother's legacy (It should be remembered that President Truman was considered a complete failure when he left office in 1953).

These are my for leaders as of today. Few senators spring to mind; maybe Kay Bailey Hutchinson, maybe Sam Brownback again. However since 1964 all sitting Presidents seeking reelection have won when facing a Senator. In that same time all Presidents seeking reelections have lost when facing a Governor. There will no doubt be future stars such as Florida Governor Charlie Crist and Minessota Governor Tim Pawlenty who may show themselves to be Presidential material in years to come.

I know this blog is premature but we're entering the home stretch now and there will be fewer and fewer new developments. One of the reasons Governor Palin has received so much attention is that she might be one of the very few people the public are not sick and tired of already. Finding new things to blog about is going to be tough especially when McCain keeps wanting to talk about a certain plumber.

But talking about the future is pointless while we still have an undecided election. So much could happen even if McCain does win. Clinton could very well challenge Obama for the nomination in 2012. Tragedy could strike in the form of an assignation or terrorist attack that could alter the dynamics of the next elections dramatically. Its just fun to speculate for a little while.

I will now spend the next 16 days watching the polls tighten with terror as I fret about getting a glimpse of what Charlie Cook felt that night of the Iowa Caucus last January.