No time for on the job training?

Recently I have begun to remember that I wanted then Senator Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic Party's nomination for President this time last year (and for a good year before then too). I remember my arguments that were almost long forgotten. I said "Clinton will be able to get things done. She knows the levers of power better than any other candidate and she will deliver a strong legislative agenda for the Democrats".

Right now Obama is in a bloody fight with the GOP over the Stimulus and has suffered the loss of three high profile cabinet nominations having to pull out. Would Clinton be in much better shape? I, like everyone else, have no idea. I just thought we ought to remind ourselves that Obama's Presidency wasn't always written in the stars and meant to be; things could have been different.

Hypothetically swapping Clinton and Obama at this point whilst fun to consider is flawed. While I think Clinton would be President right now if she had won the nomination its unlikely that there would be 58 (or even 59) Democratic Senators and the general enthusiasm for her Presidency. While her election would have been a precedent shattering event it would not have been akin to the coming together that was collectively felt by the election of the first African American President given the history of the US. Also I would bet that it would have been a nastier campaign and Clinton's gender would have prompted more debate about her capabilities than Obama's race prompted about his as sexism is much more permissible than racism.

Clinton would have had her own trouble with congressional Republicans. Though she has often shown her ability to work with old foes there are many on the right side of the aisle who would never move an inch in Hillary Clinton's direction. Then there's the mud that would be thrown at her (and back the other way). It would sell newspapers but distract from the real issues so important to America right now.

I think, on balance, the right man is in charge (although I would rather it had come after 8 years of President Al Gore). Clinton has her hands on the levers of power as far as foreign policy goes and I am glad as this has always been my primary focus when it comes to scrutanising the US. However what the recent entaglement on Capitol Hill shows us is that sometimes you cannot get a camel through the eye of a needle not matter how well you squeeze.

While we sometimes like to think that if you get the right people into the right room at the right time they will emmerge with the right solution Washington rarely works like that (sorry Aaron Sorkin). The fact is Republicans are looking at the polls and see that the public are not sold on the stimulus so why give it to Obama? Now it seems that Obama is sliding down the polls as his mantra of change is failing to help him govern as much as it helped him get elected. So why would Republicans get in the way of this?

Ultimately it will be Obama's ability to communicate to the nation and not Republicans in Congress that will see his agenda move forward. While he may idolise Lincoln and his 'Team of Rivals' he might be a bit of an anachronism. Reagan and Clinton were both excellent communicators and sold their agenda to the people before turning to Congress. Newt Gingrich was an excellent communicator too and this brought about the 1994 mid-terms. It will be interesting to see whether it will be Congressional Republicans or President Obama who learns the lessons of communicating their message well first.