Elections US

Palin: A Lust Story

2010-02-08T23:33:00.007Z

This post is an excuse to show the pictures from a recent event where Sarah Palin had to resort to writing notes on her hand in a speech where she mocked President Obama for using a tele-prompter - presumably she prefers it old skool.

What could these notes possibly say? Must be pretty hard to remember stuff if she had to right them down on her hand.

No. In fact you can see she wrote three six words. "Energy" "Tax Cut" and "Lift American Spirits". It is surprising she didn't right down the word "Republican" lest she forgets everything she claims to stand for.

I wonder with Palin whether or not this is a folksy ploy to make her seem down to earth and homely. I hope that someone who has appeared on a Presidential ticket didn't need to write the basic tenants of their political reason d'être to know what on earth they are doing on that stage.

So either she's cynical or an idiot. I don't know which is worse. But I do know this will not do an ounce of harm to her with the base of the Republican Party.

So we come back to September 2008 and we're asking the question, "What makes Sarah Palin attractive to the base GOP"

I am drawn to conclude now something I didn't want to conclude back then - she's hot.

The Republicans lust after her image as a sexy George W Bush minus the intellect.

This has the potential to be extremely sexist and an insult to every successful woman in politics and beyond, but wait, I feel confident my theory can be tested.

If Palin doesn't run in 2012 she will not be a viable candidate ever again due to the fact her looks will fade.

Even is she runs this time round the campaign will age her enough that by the early primaries she won't be looking like she did in 2008. Barack Obama's own grey hairs are testament to the fact that campaigns take their toll physically. In 2008 Palin only got a few months of it - by contrast Mike Hucakbee and Mitt Romey probably put in a great deal more hours in their Republican Primary battles - if she runs like she'll need to run then her image as a glamour politician will begin to crumble.

If Palin loses her looks but keeps her following then I'll be more than prepared to say I was wrong - and while I hope that is the case I am always disappointed when I hope the American hard right will show a bit of decency.

Mass Appeal for the GOP

2010-01-21T15:16:00.007Z

First of all let me state the obvious: No one saw this coming.

When Senator Al Franken won the recount in Minnesota at the end of June last year few would have expected that the newly minted 60 seat majority the Democrats held would be broken by a Republican winning a seat in Massachusetts.

Just a few weeks ago the Democratic primary recieved more press attention than the general election untill the last few days. It was that election that was seen as the deciding vote in the race to fill the late Ted Kennedy's seat, the vote on Tuesday was widely seen as meerely a formality.

Even Republicans have been pushing the line that the Democrats ARE Washington. After the Minnesota recount GOP Chairman Michael Steele declaimed that Democrats owned the Federal Government in its entirity. Chairman Steele was trying to force the notion that the recession had become 100% a Democrat problem and they could shake the spectre of the incompetent Bush administration.

And it has worked. Scott Brown was not tainted at all by the toxic branding of that the GOP had 12 months ago. This branding had wiped out every single last Republican House seat in New England and only three when you included New York (or 3 out of 49 (which went down to two when the Democrats won the NY 23 disctrict special election as recently as November the 3rd))

Now with a Senate win in Massachusetts Republicans are a viable alternative and its the Democrats who will have to defend their record. Given how scant that is after a year with a fillibuster proof majority, which shockingly proved unworkable, the future looks bleak with a mere 18 seat Democrat majority.

Dana Perino: A lesson in revisionism

2009-11-25T22:31:00.001Z

Spot the gaff.

Polls vs Pols

2009-10-10T00:51:00.003+01:00

October 8 saw House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), quoted by the Middletown Journal saying that he was, “still trying to find the first American who’s in favor of the public option, other than a member of Congress or the administration”.

October 8 also saw Quinnipiac University also released a poll that featured the question, "Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans?"

The poll response was 61% supporting and 34% opposing.

Slim Line Elections US

2009-10-07T11:40:00.005+01:00

I'm a busy man. I got things to do. But I miss this little blog. So now I'm going to make it more regular and less heavy - also reading back my 'analysis' I see I wasn't the Larry Sabato that I thought I was.

So I will mostly be linking interesting articles such as this one that shows Obama's approval rating has jumped for the first time since he has taken office. With Healthcare and Afghanistan not going his way this is a little surprising so we shall have to wait and see if this poll is an outlier or not.

The curse of bi-partisanship

2009-02-17T00:14:00.004Z

The President right now is in the tricky posistion of being highly popular and yet has promised bi-partisanship - but are the two related?

Is Obama popular because he's seen as willing to reach across the aisle or have voters decided to ditch the ideas of the GOP and are supporting Obama in spite of his vocal committment to work with Republicans.

Barack Obama campaigned on a message of bi-partisanship but under the banner of the Democratic Party's nominee for president and won with a healthy mandate. His message might be partly the explanation for how Obama peeled off 9% of Republicans from McCain for himself, much like Howard Dean's 50 state strategy which argueably won votes in the more conservative parts of the country. However the fact remains these elections have resulted in a liberal congress (at the leadership level at least) and a liberal President who continues to have high approval ratings.

I believe if voters' cheif concern was bipartisanship then John McCain would be President right now. His record of working across the aisle was a reality while Obama only offered rhetoric. It was a record he had to distance himself from in the Republican primaries and to a large extent the general election. Much of his record angered intollerant GOP voters and demotivated his base. This is not an uncommon story, indeed McCain is not the only politician to be bitten by bi-partisanship.

The creature whose numbers were delpleted most in the 2006 mid-term elections was the moderate Republican, now more than ever an endangered species. The prime example of this was Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee. His father was a well loved Senator for the state and his political posistions should have ensured him an easy 60% of the vote as he effortlessly covered the centre ground. He lost because he was a running in an election cycle and a state that would rather see a highly partisan liberal Democrat become Senator than any Republican even if Chafee would end up endorsing Obama for President the following year.

These liberal or moderate Republicans were so because they were running in moderate districts and states, (Chafee's own Rhode Island last went Republican in a Presidential election in 1984) and it was in these 'swing states' that Democrats made gains. It was these districts that decided the fate of the House and Senate in 2006. It was the vast numbers of Independents who decided to register a Democrats and the dwindling numbers of Republicans that sewed the seeds of victory for Obama in November.

The Democrats are in their strongest posistion since Watergate or 1964. The Republican brand is tarnished after 8 years of Bush, The Whitehouse, Congress and State Capitals are full of Democrats and Barack Obama has an ambitious agenda that if he comes close to suceeding on could deliver him a comfortable reelection. Yet the administration is desperate to appear bipartisan by working with the last three moderate Republicans in the US, Senators Snowe, Collins and Specter (all top Democrat targets when the seats come up for reelection).

These three do not represent their party or even a wing of the GOP. Not one Republican in the House voted for the stimulus package. Yet work is getting done, bills are being passed. However the Republicans are screaming that the so called bi-partisan bill is no such thing. They are right but should it really matter? Obama is giving congressional Republicans a stick with which to beat him with and he needn't be so kind, especially as all the GOP needs to do is be obstructionist to deflate Obama's promise of bipartisanship.

For so long Republican beat the Democrats with the word 'liberal', turning it into a powerful symbol for weakness, incompetence and godlessness. Obama is worried that the GOP attacks could begin to stick again and consign the Democrats into the minority for another decade.

However the voters have spoken and while Obama may be looking to the next set of elections and doesn't want to give the impression the Democrats are on a runaway train he could do a better job keeping his own peope on the hill in line instead of making overtures towards the GOP that don't go anywhere.

With 1 in 2 Americans registered as Dems, getting some concrete and impressive legislation passed should be the red meat people are clamoring for.

The battle for ideas has been won by the Democrats and they need to start legislating on them.

A bit more house keeping

2009-02-15T01:28:00.004Z

My apologies for the previous post. I think I was trying to squeeze three or four posts into one. I would have loved to have posted a 2,000 word essay like I wrote on my previous (and now non-existent) blog. I realised after getting almost half way there that this was what I was doing and ended it abruptly. I think there will be another medium for my more long-winded pieces.

This is what happens when I don't post as regularly as it should.

I do, however, have a problem and that is striking the balance between analysis and commentary. I want to delve deep into these issues but I want to keep it bite-size. In an ideal world I'll use old posts containing old ideas to frame new ones - that is after all how anyone gets their head around anything.

My goal is produce something that falls somewhere between MSNBC's First Read and Five Thirty Eight when it comes to pith. I think I fell a little outside of that range. I will try and aim for my posts to be a little bit punchier in future.

No time for on the job training?

2009-02-13T21:19:00.008Z

Recently I have begun to remember that I wanted then Senator Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic Party's nomination for President this time last year (and for a good year before then too). I remember my arguments that were almost long forgotten. I said "Clinton will be able to get things done. She knows the levers of power better than any other candidate and she will deliver a strong legislative agenda for the Democrats".

Right now Obama is in a bloody fight with the GOP over the Stimulus and has suffered the loss of three high profile cabinet nominations having to pull out. Would Clinton be in much better shape? I, like everyone else, have no idea. I just thought we ought to remind ourselves that Obama's Presidency wasn't always written in the stars and meant to be; things could have been different.

Hypothetically swapping Clinton and Obama at this point whilst fun to consider is flawed. While I think Clinton would be President right now if she had won the nomination its unlikely that there would be 58 (or even 59) Democratic Senators and the general enthusiasm for her Presidency. While her election would have been a precedent shattering event it would not have been akin to the coming together that was collectively felt by the election of the first African American President given the history of the US. Also I would bet that it would have been a nastier campaign and Clinton's gender would have prompted more debate about her capabilities than Obama's race prompted about his as sexism is much more permissible than racism.

Clinton would have had her own trouble with congressional Republicans. Though she has often shown her ability to work with old foes there are many on the right side of the aisle who would never move an inch in Hillary Clinton's direction. Then there's the mud that would be thrown at her (and back the other way). It would sell newspapers but distract from the real issues so important to America right now.

I think, on balance, the right man is in charge (although I would rather it had come after 8 years of President Al Gore). Clinton has her hands on the levers of power as far as foreign policy goes and I am glad as this has always been my primary focus when it comes to scrutanising the US. However what the recent entaglement on Capitol Hill shows us is that sometimes you cannot get a camel through the eye of a needle not matter how well you squeeze.

While we sometimes like to think that if you get the right people into the right room at the right time they will emmerge with the right solution Washington rarely works like that (sorry Aaron Sorkin). The fact is Republicans are looking at the polls and see that the public are not sold on the stimulus so why give it to Obama? Now it seems that Obama is sliding down the polls as his mantra of change is failing to help him govern as much as it helped him get elected. So why would Republicans get in the way of this?

Ultimately it will be Obama's ability to communicate to the nation and not Republicans in Congress that will see his agenda move forward. While he may idolise Lincoln and his 'Team of Rivals' he might be a bit of an anachronism. Reagan and Clinton were both excellent communicators and sold their agenda to the people before turning to Congress. Newt Gingrich was an excellent communicator too and this brought about the 1994 mid-terms. It will be interesting to see whether it will be Congressional Republicans or President Obama who learns the lessons of communicating their message well first.

My Time in NC

2009-02-11T10:41:00.003Z

A bit of house keeping before I start regularly blogging again.

The campaign was an amazing experience and I am so glad that as a Brit I was so warmly welcomed by the campaign. I met some amazing people, staff, volunteers, door knockers, rally attendees and voters.

There was a lot of energy around the campaign. I can't believe I worked an 80+ hour week (I currently feel a bit rough when I scratch 40 hours). I made some great friends and got to see a real Presidential campaign in action in a state the provided President Obama with his closest victory.

Seeing as I was told I couldn't blog on the campaign I'm not sure if I should talk about what went on. I have very little insider knowledge about the campaign. I had my own little jobs and worked on them hard. Its a long time ago now anyway so I shan't bore you. Except to say that for all the computer wizardry and ingenious ways of maximising the affectiveness of the campaign it was all down to the enthusiasm of the regular door knocking volunteers.

Sure the camapaign was excellent at channelling voters enthusiasm in exactly the right directions and without it NC probably wouldn't have been won. However the people I was working with and talking to everyday were so positive, so eager to get out there and help a Democrat win North Carolina for the first time in 32 years. It looks as if it payed off as Nate Silver wrote at the time, doors knocked gets more votes. Without the enegry of volunteers giving up weekends and making calls from home then the campaign in NC would have been lost before it began and it was ally down to the kinda of candidate then Senator Obama was (and I intended this to be a non-partisan blog).

My normal blogging will resume looking at President Obama's administration aswell as the off-year elections, mid-terms and because its never too early; talent scouting the Republican field for a 2012 Presidential Run.

Thank you for hanging in there. You can all breathe a collective sigh of relief now.

Normal Service Will Resume Shortly

2009-02-11T10:36:00.001Z

Watch this space!

I'm still alive.

2008-10-26T01:15:00.003+01:00

So I loved the idea of blogging and campaigning at the same time but its unlikely to get done. I am following the campaign less than I have in about two years. I get up at 8 and go to bed at 12 and every other minute is dedicated to the campaign it seems (accept when I slack off like right now).

So this cannot be the blog I'd like it to be sadly. However I can tell you we just had a conference call when Barack Obama told us to keep up the good work. I wouldn't have known that watching MSNBC. However I'm desperate to know what the campaigns are doing outside of this office. I'll try to squeeze some time in for analysis at some point.

Brief state of the race: Obama victory looks increasingly likely but a North Carolina is still a toss-up.

Oh Carolina!

2008-10-21T20:14:00.005+01:00

I've been sitting on this for a few days now but I think its time to make an announcement. In 48 Hours I will be blogging from North Carolina.

Last night I booked my flight and I will be mostly observing the Obama campaign in this hotly contested swing state.

I will update the blog from inside the Obama machine and also report on the Senate Race there that Democrats need if they want to get a fillibuster proof majority.

For the first few days at least I will be based in Raleigh which is here.

I'm hugely excited about this trip and I will make sure this blog benefits. I'm off to pack.

PS I'm do apologise for the tabloid nature of my titles for recent posts.

Powell's timing

2008-10-21T00:24:00.005+01:00

Colin Powell is a highly respected man and he didn't earn this respect for nothing. Beyond his impressive military service, his chairmanship of the Joint Chiefs, his tenure as Secretary of State and his charity work he is a man of great dignity and the endorsement gave to Barack Obama fits the dignity well.

The words he used were eloquent and direct and the subdued setting of Meet the Press lacked the pomposity of the other two big Obama endorsements, that of John Edwards and Bill Richardson.

Even more dignified than that was the timing. If he had endorsed Obama on last weeks meet the press his name would have been thrown around and dragged through the mud all over the final debate. He's missed that out completely and this will allow him to keep a more independent and remote position in this election. He wants people to know he's voting for Obama but only if they're keen to find out for themselves. He doesn't want to appear on ads and open himself up for the kind of attacks McCain has been throwing out.

What is interesting though is that Powell chose the first Sunday after the debates to announce his support. I think this indicates that Powell has been leaning to Obama for some time now and chose this opportunity as the first point he could throw his support behind his candidate without getting too deep in the mud.

So while Powell has made an effort to seem above the fray there are signs that point to him leaning towards Obama due to more than just the recent examples he cited. Perhaps their shared minority status, perhaps a dislike of the Republican shift towards the right. Either way I believe Powell wants to help Obama win the White House a great deal more than his dignity will probably allow.

2012: Premature Predictions

2008-10-19T03:44:00.008+01:00

So now is about the last possible minute I can sit back and proclaim Obama the next President of the United States. Soon the polls will tighten and it will make me and so many other commentators worried about what they've written in the last week or so.

I remember in late 2007 political pundit Charlie Cook was probably looking at the polls after Thanksgiving that put Senator Clinton around 9-16 points above Obama in the Democratic primaries.

Cook wrote an extremely good article about who Clinton might end up picking to be her Vice President. He weighed up all the potential candidates pros and cons well and started to build up a picture of a Clinton administration. He didn't include Barack Obama, instead leaving him till last and only wrote one sentence admitting that this could be the man to make him regret ever submitting the article.

It was George Santayana who first said, "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it." So in that spirit lets take a look at which Republicans might run in 2012 against Obama.

First of all is Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Many in the conservative movement have pointed to Sarah Palin as being the best thing on the ticket. That was why she was picked after all; to motivate Republicans. So when it comes down to Republican primaries, where the primary goal is to motivate Republicans, she should fare quite well.

However primaries have a lot of debates in them and she'd be pretty well scrutinized by other members of her party gunning for the top job themselves. She could only get the nomination if it was much more of a coronation much like George Bush's was meant to be in 2000 (before a certain pesky Senator from Arizona won the New Hampshire Primary). Palin would have have fared pretty poorly if she was included in the 21 debates the Republicans held this cycle.

She would also find it hard building initial support in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. When Mitt Romney was planning his run for the Presidency he would very easily pop over to New Hampshire and meet with party members without it being too much of a coup (in fact due to shared media markets much Massachusetts TV covering Governor Romney was shown in New Hampshire). If Palin got in a plane and travelled over 3,000 miles to New Hampshire then people would know she was only there to fish for votes. She would need the party establishment to get behind her and get behind her early and make the early contests a forgone conclusion.

It also all depends on how well inevitable-going-to-be-elected-President Obama is handling his job. If he's riding high in the polls I think Palin would be wise to sit it out and let someone else fail (after another election which is of course another forgone conclusion).

If she waited and let a movement build up behind her, anxious for her to throw her name into the ring the road to the nomination would be a lot easier as Republicans like to pick a candidate they like early and stick with them. The extra time would also allow Palin to build a more impressive CV.

Other names include Mitt Romney. Now I believe (hope) the economy will getting back on its feet by 2012 and that would rob Romney of an issue he is strong on. However parties are often criticized for fighting the previous election so perhaps this will help Romney.

He certainly wanted to be McCain's Vice Presidential choice but after spending so much of his own money on his campaign and seeing zero returns will his business acumen prevent him from making another risky investment.

Mike Huckabee could also do well if the Christian Right in the party conclude the absence of a fundamentalist christian at the top of cost Republicans the Presidency (though this argument will also help Palin and other evangelicals).

The rise of Sarah Palin hurts Huckabee more than anyone else. His evangelical bona fides mixed with his folksy charm are traits that helped him win states however Palin does the job better and does little else. Huckabee would have to find another angle of attack is Palin is running too.

Perhaps a little perversely I would also consider Jeb Bush a potential candidate. He was the smarter of the two brothers and would have probably ran for President himself had he not lost his bid to become Governor of Florida in 1994. He's popular with the christian right, he's from the largest swing state that he governed well, fluent in Spanish and has connections that could list for miles. His surname is Bush however and so he will be tied to the fortunes of his brother's legacy (It should be remembered that President Truman was considered a complete failure when he left office in 1953).

These are my for leaders as of today. Few senators spring to mind; maybe Kay Bailey Hutchinson, maybe Sam Brownback again. However since 1964 all sitting Presidents seeking reelection have won when facing a Senator. In that same time all Presidents seeking reelections have lost when facing a Governor. There will no doubt be future stars such as Florida Governor Charlie Crist and Minessota Governor Tim Pawlenty who may show themselves to be Presidential material in years to come.

I know this blog is premature but we're entering the home stretch now and there will be fewer and fewer new developments. One of the reasons Governor Palin has received so much attention is that she might be one of the very few people the public are not sick and tired of already. Finding new things to blog about is going to be tough especially when McCain keeps wanting to talk about a certain plumber.

But talking about the future is pointless while we still have an undecided election. So much could happen even if McCain does win. Clinton could very well challenge Obama for the nomination in 2012. Tragedy could strike in the form of an assignation or terrorist attack that could alter the dynamics of the next elections dramatically. Its just fun to speculate for a little while.

I will now spend the next 16 days watching the polls tighten with terror as I fret about getting a glimpse of what Charlie Cook felt that night of the Iowa Caucus last January.

What I NOW know about Joe

2008-10-17T02:30:00.004+01:00

If I'm going to be serious about this blog I need to do a bit more research. Joe Wurzelbacherl, thats Joe the Plumber from Wednesday's debate and Joe from the video I linked in my previous post talking to Obama, he's voting for McCain. Furthermore shortly after talking to Obama he spoke to Neil Cavuto on Fox News and called the Democrat's tax ideas "socialist". See the clip below.

Now I should stop trying to compete with the candidates in terms of mentioning Joe as many times as possible. Joe agrees and thinks the candidates and the pundits should get back to focusing on the issues. Though I think this won't be the last of Joe.

What I now know about Joe

2008-10-16T13:45:00.004+01:00

So Joe the plumber was the third man in that debate last night. McCain brought him up and proceeded to mention him a further 21 times and Obama gave a shout-out to Joe 4 times.

Joe the plumber probably isn't going to be endorsing Barack Obama. Here is a clip of Obama and Joe debating small business tax policy of the two candidates.

I think Obama does very well in his mini debate with Joe and goes a small way to convincing him to switch his vote - perhaps.

Judge for yourself.

If referencing Joe the Plumber means that the above footage will be seen by a greater number of voters and maybe even picked up by the major networks then I think this can only benefits Obama. He does well talking to Joe and convincingly appears ready to be the President for both Democrats AND Republicans.

A short-sighted move from McCain.

Joe the Plumber

2008-10-16T03:21:00.003+01:00

Joe has been referenced a fair few times. I reckon plumber Joe is going to be a coveted endorsee.

If he comes out and endorses Obama or McCain it could be very consequential with the potential to shift the election perhaps half a percentage point (much more power than the average voter).

I expect to see him pop up on the networks this week. "I'll make up my mind on election day" is what I can see him saying. Or by the sound of it McCain seems more like his candidate - it was McCain who brought it up.

Keep a look out for more from Joe.

When was the last time a debate changed anything?

2008-10-16T00:50:00.004+01:00

In 1980 Carter held a slim lead two weeks before the election. Then there was the one and only election a week before and it had the affect of putting both party's eggs in one basket.

Reagan won the debate ending with the question, "Are you really better off today than you were four years ago?". Reagan won in a landslide. The debate it seems convinced many undecided voters and even of a few 'Reagan Democrats'.

John McCain is not an unknown quantity. The media circus that this election cycle has been means few undecideds are going to make their minds up on this debate out of all the others. Furthermore as McCain is from the party which is now presiding over the worst economic crisis in the 1930s Obama can hit his opponent hard by simply asking "Are you really better off today than you were eight years ago?"

A debate too late?

2008-10-15T04:00:00.005+01:00

So while trawling the news sites I spotted a common theme. Even if you just scan these articles from SkyNews.com, Guardian.co.uk and CNN.com you might just work out what it is.

Apparently its do or die for McCain.

While it may draw in more attention and better ratings to hype the last debate as the climax of the grueling 22 month long election campaign it really is not. McCain's moment to turn this election around came and went with the last debate.

Before the last debate on the 7th of October a CBS poll had Obama up by 3 points. Today CBS have released a poll showing Obama up by 14 points. While it appears voters slightly favoured Obama in the last debate it should generally be considered a tie.

The only thing McCain could have done to top the massive slide towards Obama is deliver a killer punch at the town hall meeting last Tuesday. He failed.

Now for reasons I shall go into later McCain's numbers are beginning to look like they are going to completely bottom out. If McCain had turned around the poll number from last week it would have been a feat matched only by Ronald Reagan in 1980. If McCain can turn around this weeks polls numbers it will go down in US electoral history as the greatest ever comeback and will need much more than a victory in a third debate of three.

A tectonic shift would have to occur. A terrorist attack. A massive scandal. An assassination (God forbid). These are the scale of event that could move this election of its current course. Over the 15 or so rounds if McCain gets zinger after zinger it won't change the fact thats he's in the same party as George Bush, Democrats do better in economic crisis and for weeks now Obama has been ahead while early voting is taking place across key states.

A big win for McCain in the last debate would not have been enough on its own to win the election, it would have had to have been followed up by another big win tomorrow to give him a chance of victory. McCain's big win didn't come last week and as such that was his last stand.

This debate tomorrow should be interesting viewing, mostly because the note McCain will attempt to strike will be so telling. His last three weeks campaign will most likely be his political epitaph. Will he want to hit Obama hard and fight hard for an almost impossible goal or will he focus on the issues important to him in the hope he will leave a strong political legacy?

I imagine he will try to do a little both. I suggest we all watch to find out.

My West Virginia & Arkansas theory might be weaker than I thought.

2008-10-13T20:24:00.007+01:00

According to Chuck Todd at MSNBC the reason why West Virginia has been slowly sliding towards Obama despite the odds is that it is surrounded by three key swing states; Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. The result for some time has been that in many areas campaign ads intended for the three swing states are being watched by West Virginians in shared media markets.
As you can see from this map the area in light blue is a spillover from Ohio, the dark yellow area is a spillover from Pennsylvania and the purple and the green areas are both spill overs from Virginia. The white area is for Washington DC but a large part of this market also covers Virginia and Obama has been spending there also.

So West Virginia has slowly been turning Obama's way it seems and the McCain camp have recognised this; Sarah Palin was campaigning yesterday on the Ohio-West Virginia border and it wasn't just for Ohio's sake. Though for McCain or Palin to campaign in West Virginia would be a loud signal that their campaign is in real trouble.

All this means that while Arkansas looks like West Virginia when it comes to the demographic its has been experiencing a different election this cycle. Arkansas is surrounded by Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee which are all strong McCain states. Arkansas's long northern border with possible swing state Missouri is unlikely to be very important as Missouri has only recently been identified as a state Obama just might win, unlike Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia where Obama has been fighting in for months now.

However I will still be paying close attention to the next poll out of Arkansas.

Polls arrived. Polls to come?

2008-10-13T02:29:00.004+01:00

My new favourite website is FiveThirtyEight.
Its been around for about 8 months I believe but its pretty new to me and I am in love with it. There is so much information to comb over and its opinion pieces are well written and informative and its all very nicely laid out.

However they are only as good as the polls they collect. If all the polling organisations packed up shop then FiveThirtyEight would be out of business.

Thankfully this hasn't happened and the site can continue to post cool maps like the one above showing their own projections for the election.

The information however is limited because polling organisations have not given us enough data in some states. Just look at ; a state that hasn't gone Democrat since 1964 and Missouri; where Bush beat Kerry by 7% in 2004. Both these states are now considered toss ups and polling is coming in thick and fast from these two.

In the last month there have been 12 polls from Indiana and 9 polls from Missouri that are reputable enough to be factored into FiveThirtyEight's projection analysis.

On the other hand there have only been three polls in the time frame that have come out from West Virginia. The last one, conducted by the American Research Group, gave Obama an 8 point lead over McCain. Less than a month before they had McCain up by 4 points.

This could be a anomalous poll but I think other polling organisations will soon start to conduct a फेव more polls there and stop covering Pennsylvania and Michigan all the time which are both showing 10+ leads for Obama and probably cannot now be considered 'swing states'.

According to Ron Gunzberger's Politics1 there is an Insider Advantage poll that has Obama within the margin of error of McCain's lead (49%-46%) in Georgia, a state where Bush beat Kerry by 16.5% in 2004 and a state where Bill Clinton couldn't even win in 1996. So expect one or two more polls there.

I want to see more polling in states that many might have left for dead. There have only been two polls in Arkansas in the last three months. This is a state very similar to West Virginia and while McCain posted a 12 and 9 point lead in those two polls three weeks ago a lot has changed since.

I reckon McCain would struggle to get more than a 5 point lead there and with a bit of help from the Clintons the state could be in play.

It could be that this election is well and truly over already and we just don't know about it yet. If it turns out McCain is going to have to fight to win Arkansas or Georgia then its going to President Obama come January.

What needs to happen immediately is polling organisations need to forget about Michigan and Pennsylvania and start to test the water in traditional Republican states and see if the real battleground is somewhere far from expected.

Does Obama not want people to know he's a Democrat?

2008-10-13T01:23:00.002+01:00

Looking back on the previous debates and reading the transcripts at The Green Papers, I began to notice something. Obama has not once said the word 'Democrat' in either of his debates. Compare this with John Kerry who said 'Democrat' six times across three debates.

Obama has also only said the word, 'Republican' three times. Compare this with John Kerry who said 'Republican' a total of 10 times during his debates.

This is smart politics from the candidate who insists he's serious about bridging party lines. McCain also professes the same but so far he has mentioned parties by name a total of 11 times over two debates which is only one short of Bush's total of times which was over three debates.

I don't believe Obama's failing to mention parties by name to be an accident. Obama has sailed through two very well considered debates. McCain has seemed much more off the cuff, I point towards his old pen.

The proof will come with the final debate on Wednesday. Watch to see how many times Obama mentions parties by name. It could all be prove wrong however as the next debate is on domestic issues where Democrats often are seen to have an edge. Will Obama think its safe to mention the D word when talking about Healthcare or the Environment?

"Healthcare is a right"

2008-10-08T03:21:00.001+01:00

The CNN panel of uncommitteed Ohio voters turned up their dials in a big way for that line from Obama. It was perhaps the biggest high of the night according to that measurement.

Healthcare is proving itself to be the issue that along with the economy Obama is way out in front on. Obviously healthcare and the economy are linked but while voters seem to only trust Obama more on the issue they seem to be much more aware of the different directions the two candidates would take healthcare and they are siding with Obama on this on.

McCain is talking about energy!

2008-10-08T02:09:00.001+01:00

He did exactly the same last week.

Asked about the economy he talked about ear marks and pork barrel spending.

Now asked about the economy he's talking about energy independce.

Its a valid posistion but its got little to with the current economic crisis.

He's switching the questions to issues he is strong on.

Will voters see through this?

This debate will be the single most important event of this whole campaign

2008-10-08T01:49:00.001+01:00

If McCain fouls up here then no matter how negative he goes he'll be written up as a desperate man who had his chance and blew it.

If he ties then he can stem the tide of voters away from his campaign and will set himself up to go negative from a posistion of authority.

If McCain wins then he'll be able to tighten the polls and it'll just be a race to see if he can get one percentage point over Obama (all he needs to win) before election day.

It might not be that spectacular an event but its ramifications will be felt for the rest of the campaign. McCain needs to give the performance of his lifetime if he intends to become the next President.

I am very excited right now.